The Dry Bulk Market Will Still Resume Its Adjustment Period In 2018

- Feb 01, 2018-

Recently, the International Shipping Research Center of Shanghai International Shipping Research Center released the "Annual Report of the International Dry Bulk Shipping Market (2017 Review and Outlook 2018)".


Recalling the year 2017, the report pointed out that the global economic rebound accelerated the growth of seaborne trade. The global dry bulk shipping volume in 2017 was 5.109 billion tons, an increase of 4.20% from the same period of last year. Among them, iron ore accounted for 29.16%, coal accounted for 23.45%, food accounted for 10.08%, small proportion of 37.31%.glenflange


In 2017, the annual average of BDI stood at 1145 points, representing a substantial increase of 70% over the average for 2016. In the long run, the mean recovered to the medium level, and the difference in growth rate of supply and demand recovered to the boom. The market freight rate entered a recovery and adjustment ascending channel.


Looking forward to the 2018 international dry bulk shipping market, the report predicts the following trends:


First, the international dry bulk seaborne trade is facing structural adjustment, and will slightly decline in 2018: It is estimated that the volume of international dry bulk seaborne trade will be slightly adjusted in 2018. Although emerging market recovery is accelerating and infrastructure boom in ASEAN countries is rising, the base number is relatively low. With the slowdown of fixed investment growth in China and the slow process of port de-stocking, the import growth rate of iron ore will be lower than that in 2017. However, Under the support of infrastructure construction, the medium-speed growth still maintained. The volume of coal shipping is expected to be slowed down due to the strengthening of global environmental protection and the adjustment of energy structure. Export of Chinese steel products will still be negatively affected by anti-dumping. Shanghai International Shipping Research Center Looking forward to 2018 global seaborne trade volume or more than 2.7% growth.glenflange


Second, delivery orders dropped sharply in 2018 and capacity growth slowed sharply to 2%: Looking forward to the year 2018, the dismantling capacity will further decline in the structural dismantling phase and will be better affected by capacity control in the past two years. 2018 The annual delivery capacity will drop sharply but the delivery rate will pick up further as market confidence gradually picks up. Shanghai International Shipping Research Center estimates that the growth rate of the capacity of the international dry bulk carriers (shipyards' shipbuilders) team will slightly slow down to about 2% in 2018, continuing Lower than the volume growth rate.


To sum up, the report holds that the average of the BDI index is maintained at 1100-1300 points: the international dry bulk shipping market is still in the period of recovery and adjustment, and the growth rate of supply and demand remains in a good range of growth. "The fourth quarter of 2017 China Climate Index Report "Pointed out that the shipping industry has entered the best period in seven years and will continue its steady recovery in 2018.


The BDI index is expected to remain at around 1100-1300 points by 2018, but BDI will be more affected by the large-scale vessel transportation market with the volatility further removed as the Baltic Exchange adjusts the BDI calculation method enlarge. With the further development of shipbuilding technology, the ship delivery period has been drastically reduced. The upgrading of capacity supply has caused some risks to the market recovery. Beware of market speculation, "hunters strike" resulting in a further increase of capacity supply and a prolonged recovery cycle in the market , The latter part of the rise still need to be cautiously optimistic.glenflange