In 2019, the new ship construction market is still in a tripartite situation. The total new orders received by China, Japan and South Korea accounted for 97.8% of the world market share.
In 2020, the capacity of bulk carrier will increase by about 2.3%, lower than 3.2% of the demand growth, and the supply will be less than the demand. At present, many shipping companies are optimistic about the bulk carrier market in 2020, and the bulk carrier market is expected to run smoothly and recover slowly in 2020. Considering that the current competition pattern tends to be stable, although the container ship construction market is difficult in the next year, it is also expected to maintain a stable situation. The tanker construction market is expected to continue to improve, but considering the risk events, it is still necessary to be cautious; Despite the reduction of LNG ship orders this year, LNG ships will remain vigorous in 2020 driven by the huge demand for clean energy.
Trend of world economy and shipping market
In April 2019, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts that the global economic growth rate will be 3.3% in 2019, and in October, it will reduce the global economic growth forecast to 3%. IMF pointed out that the main reasons for the slowdown of global economic growth are the increase of tariffs and the aggravation of trade disputes, the downturn of manufacturing industry, and the insufficient demand for investment and capital goods, and the forecast value of 3% of global economic growth is the lowest level since the outbreak of the international financial crisis in 2008. According to the constantly lowered forecast, the global economic growth slows down in 2019, and the world economic situation is grim, which is not optimistic.
In 2020, the global economic growth rate is expected to be 3.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from April this year. Nowadays, unilateralism and protectionism are constantly endangering Global trade and world economic growth, and their uncertainty is also hitting global economic confidence and shaking economic expectations. The tension and complexity of geopolitical situation has become a huge obstacle to global economic growth. Therefore, the global economic situation in 2020 is still unclear.
World shipping market
In October 2019, the 2019 maritime transport report issued by the United Nations Conference on Trade and development (uncyad) pointed out that in 2018, the growth rate of international maritime trade was 2.7%, and the total transport capacity reached 11 billion tons. It is expected that the growth rate will exceed 3.5% in 2019-2024. In the first eight months of 2019, the average value of Clarkson shipping composite index is 12% higher than that of the same period last year (13% growth in the whole year of 2018). Clarkson expects that the tanker market and liquefied natural gas (LNG) market will perform well next year, but uncertainty is still the main factor affecting the shipping market.
In terms of bulk transportation, the Baltic dry bulk index (BDI) basically showed an upward trend from February to September, with a maximum of 2518 points. After September, with the weakening of global economy and the weakening of iron ore demand, freight rates dropped significantly, and BDI showed a downward trend.
In terms of oil transportation, affected by the attack in Saudi Arabia, the BDTI and bcti of oil tankers rose sharply and then fell back rapidly.
In terms of freight collection, freight was not ideal in the first half of this year due to weak trade growth and continuous delivery of large container ships. In order to raise the freight rate, the liner company cancelled some flights, but still did not stop the pace of freight rate decline. In the first three quarters of 2019, a total of 42 container ships were cancelled, more than doubling the cancellation rate compared with the same period in 2018. Affected by the Sino US trade war, in the first seven months of this year, the traffic volume of the Far East to North America route dropped by 0.4%; as of October, the traffic volume of the west coast of the United States (USWC) fell, and the spot freight decreased by 28.9% year-on-year.